Method of Decision Making For Flood Management of Medjerda High Valley

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Volume spécial - CIRS2017, Article19	[Volume spécial - CIRS2017, Article19]	2293 kB

S. ABIDI^1*

M.EL AYARI²

O. HAJJI³

H. HAMADI⁴

¹University of Jendouba, Sylvo-Pastoral Institute of Tabarka, Department of Protection and Development of Agroforestry Resources and Areas, Tabarka8110,Tunisia,

²University of Debrecen, Doctoral school of Informatics, Department of Applied Mathematics and Probability Theory, Debrecen 4032, Hungary,

³University of Jendouba, Higher School of Engineers of Medjez El Beb, Medjez El Beb 9070, Tunisia,

⁴University of Carthage, Department of Rural Engineering; Water and Soil, National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia, Tunis 1082, Tunisia.

Abstract - During a flood event, the decision maker needs a simple and closer to reality tool to make the proper decisions, such as; the release of dams, the risk knowledge to protect the villagers from the floods. This article presents the construction of a simple flood-forecasting tool at the main stations of the Medjerda, upstream Sidi Salem dam, which will serve for the management of dams and floods of the Medjerda.The phenomenon of floods is seriously arising in the upper Medjerda valley, precisely in Bensalem’s plain upstream Sidi Salem’s dam. To be able to manage the risk of flooding, decision-makers need a simple and rapid tool. Flood prediction results with propagation models are satisfactory. Therefore, we have created an application under MATLAB based on these models. This application requires only upstream’s instant flows to predict downstream’s flows while the coefficients basis of the models, are made from the reconstruction of historical floods. The calculation delay time is evaluated from 2 to 8 hours with a step of 2. The application has been validated using the flood of February 2015. The results were satisfactory with significant Nash coefficients. It has been stated that as the delay is low, the Nash coefficient is better. Propagation models are effective as a tool for flood forecasting, although the Medjerda basin is heterogeneous in terms of the physical characteristics as soil. This application will be connected to the data collection system for real-time forecasting.

Keywords: Flood forecasting, flow propagation model, MATLAB programming, alert system.

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